Alham Tariq

The political mayhem is reaching its height, and the Government of Azad Kashmir has announced elections in three phases. The populace of the Semi-Autonomous State is staging protests while the Government has called upon police from Punjab and other Provinces for the smooth conduct of electoral procedures.

The Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), which has been designated a proscribed organization, called on protests in the case of 12 reserved seats, and thousands of individuals have joined the protests since then. The people of AJK believe that issues pertaining to governance should be resolved peacefully without any (mis) use of force, but the government believes otherwise. Protests have been staged at multiple locations in Azad Kashmir, including Rawalakot, Poonch, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and other major cities. But the government, using coercive means to (mis)handle the situation, decided to cut off communication in the region, shut down internet services, and, some reports suggest, ordered police and other law enforcement agencies to detain the protestors by any means possible.

Where did it all start? It was a simple matter of abolishing the 12 reserved seats. JAAC viewed these seats as Trojan Horses and argued that they undermined local representation, and the house should belong only to the people who reside in the region. This was a simple matter of governance and the electoral college, and it could have been resolved through peaceful means, using dialogue and negotiations. But the brutal crackdown on civilians ignited a fire of hatred.  JAAC began as a local movement, identifying administrative problems and calling on the government to resolve them. Many people in Azad Kashmir say, “JAAC has protested in the past two years, and they were not terrorists back then. What has changed since? Why are they terrorists today? How come they became Indian agents all of a sudden?” The state has no answer to this but brutal crackdown.

Also read: Political Mayhem in AJK: The Proscribed JAAC Movement and the Conundrum of Refugee Reserved Seats

Reports indicate that more than 40 people have been killed in these protests so far, including 6 law enforcement personnel. The real number might be far greater than this. When the Government of AJK resorted to violent means to tackle these protestors, and the federal government assisted them, the situation further escalated. Initially, the protests were announced to enforce the JAAC demands, but with this brutal crackdown, things worsened. JAAC gave the final date of 23^rd July for the demands to be met, and if not, they would prolong the protests and decide further actions.

Despite the prevailing stiffness in the air, the Election Commissioner of AJK, Justice (retd) Ghulam Mustafa Mughal, has announced the polls to be conducted in three phases in Kashmir, which were to be held on July 27^th. He cited the need to ensure the availability of army personnel at all polling stations for security reasons at the insistence of all participating political parties.

The Election Commissioner announced the following three phases:

·      July 27: 13 constituencies of Mirpur division

·      August 2: nine constituencies of Muzaffarabad division and all 12 refugee constituencies

·      August 10: 11 constituencies of Poonch division

Despite all the preparations and the government's insistence, the on-ground situation tells a different story. Whether it be the people of Kotli, Poonch or Bagh, they are completely disinterested in elections at the moment. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – a popular party within the region- boycotted the elections in support of the people.  In the last election, PTI had secured the largest share (31.4 per cent) of the votes and had formed the government. On the other hand, the proscribed JAAC has been staging protests and demonstrations all over Azad Kashmir, most recently in Rawalakot. While media channels constantly portray JAAC as an unpopular entity in AJK, public demonstrations suggest otherwise.

Many people in Azad Kashmir are unwilling to talk about elections at all. Some are afraid that if they share their opinion on social media or elsewhere, they’ll be labelled either as “Indian Agents” by the Government, or the “Traitors” by the JAAC. Whatever their actual positions may be, the majority is concerned about the transparency of these Elections, citing their reservations towards ‘Free and Fair’ elections. I have talked to a bunch of people in Azad Kashmir, and they all are certain that the voter turnout would be far less than anticipated. And why would it not be like this? After all, the people of AJK have been subjected to a month and a half of communication blackout. There have been no old-fashioned political campaigns. And the protests persist.

Also read: Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Beyond Camera’s Lens

In my personal view, I believe that violence is no solution to a cause pertaining to the civilian population. All the concerned parties should sit down at the dialogue table and resume negotiations. If this issue persists, it will give hostile actors room to plant their seeds.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan (THRIP)

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Alham Tariq is a poet, writer and political analyst from Pakistan. He is a Gold Medalist in BS International Relations from the University of Central Punjab, Lahore, and has a keen understanding of domestic and regional politics. His work primarily focuses on geopolitics, comparative governance and public policy.