Khawaja Touqeer Ahmad

The 2022 UN-mediated Truce began to shatter as four years of relative calm between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis came to an end following recent air strikes over Sanaa Airport on July 13^th. The escalation triggered as the runway of the Houthi- controlled airport in Yemen was struck by the Saudi-backed Internationally recognized government (IRG). By claiming responsibility, the IRG put forward the rationale of denying an aircraft landing that was carrying weapons support towards Houthis from Tehran. Blaming KSA, Houthis launched a retaliatory barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Abha Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. Houthis claimed that the plane was carrying a Houthi Delegation that was on a visit to Tehran and alleged the attack to be provoked upon Saudi instigation. Following the episode, Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Saree declared the end of the “de-escalation period” and warned international flight operations over Saudi airspace. Moreover, the crisis intensified as Houthis threatened to inflict damage on infrastructure, airports and vital Saudi assets in response to resumed US air strikes over Iran. The prevailing hostility, if not managed, can serve as a turning point in shaping the future of the Middle East and in determining the course of global energy crises.

In this context, Iran’s role becomes evident and crucial in deterring regional calamities. Prioritizing stability and long-term regional peace should take precedence over ambitions of using neighboring states for strategic leverage. Mitigating crises and strengthening the ceasefire require a certain level of compromise, resilience and restraint rather than opting tit for tit-for-tat tactics. Providing escape windows and face-saving to adversaries stand as cornerstones of the contemporary crises management model. In response to US aggression, Iran continues to employ pressure tactics by raising the cost of war not only for the US and the Middle East but for the global energy supply chains. Undermining the sovereignty and security of the Gulf, Iran has been launching attacks on US bases and strategic facilities across the region. Throughout the conflict, this strategy has borne some significant gains for Iran. However, through sustained diplomacy and mediation, states like Pakistan played a pivotal role in preventing conflict from escalating into a broader regional war. In this regard, Pak-KSA repeated engagements and their adherence to continued restraint remain of critical importance. And eventually, a Memorandum of Understanding MOU was reached via sincere efforts of Pakistan and Qatar.

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 Soon after MOU signing, evolving developments are not favoring Iran on a greater extent. From criticizing the US for its unnecessary aggression, Western states are now backing the US to ensure free maritime trade across the Strait of Hormuz. Britain has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization. The Iranian proxy network across the region is also under stress and ceding its influence. Hamas and Hezbollah are restricted in their course of action after loss of senior leadership, degraded tunnel networks and disrupted supply chains after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Recently, the US-mediated framework between the Lebanese government and Israel bypassed Hezbollah’s clout in the strategic and political affairs. Likewise, the US-Iraqi government coalition has coerced Iranian-backed militias to constrain their operations by targeted bombardment of the militias’ weapon depots and drone sites. So Houthis remain as a last resort in maximizing strategic imperatives for Iran over the negotiation table. Amidst recent US attacks, Houthis are mobilized to target regional states, particularly KSA, to widen the scope of conflict and to disrupt maritime activity in the Red Sea. As Bab al-Mandeb facilitates about 12% of global seaborne trade, disrupting its trade routes can inflict greater pain on the US and broader global economies. Given the strategic dividends and economic repercussions of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s motivation to incentivize another choke point, i.e., Bab al-Mandeb, remains high.

Strategically, Iran’s assertiveness by enabling the Houthis can backfire in various ways. Destabilizing another international route would draw more states into the US camp in order to restore freedom of navigation and to secure maritime transit. Moreover, the Houthis' engagement with KSA could trigger the in-place Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement SMDA between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Citing Reuters, Pakistan’s senior officials proclaimed ‘KSA to be the red line’, projecting Pakistan’s affirmed synergy under its defence pact. Therefore, the situation could get worse as Iran, under a similar course, could lose the support of its key partners, i.e. Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear power. Consequently, other Muslim states, such as Turkey and Qatar, could follow the same course, potentially leaving Iran in isolation. These provocations could reverse Iran’s hard-earned strategic gains, allowing the US and its allies to attain the upper hand.

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Pathways towards de-escalation lie in mutual respect and strict observance of the existing MOU. Recognition of the reconciliation process should be upheld by both parties, and mediators’ involvement should remain paramount in the event of any violation. Despite unilateral measures, middle players, i.e. Pakistan and Qatar, must be taken in confidence before adopting any course of action. Secondly, Iran should reconsider its strategy of opening another war front in the Gulf of Aden. Eliciting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would broaden the scope of war by risking the participation of Pakistan and brotherly Muslim states in the combat. Confronting Western powers, Gulf states and Pakistan simultaneously would not work for Iran. Therefore, it is high time for the IRGC to recalibrate its Middle Eastern strategy and to consider political resolutions. To this end, Houthis ought to be confined to launching any further aggression against KSA and targeting its interests in the Red Sea. At the same time, Saudi Arabia should maintain its policy of restraint to preserve long-term regional prospects. Fostering diplomatic engagements, promoting confidence-building, and exercising mutual restraint will determine the long-term trajectory of peace and stability in the Middle East.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan (THRIP)

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Khawaja TouQeer Ahmed is an IR Scholar and Research Intern at Strategic Vision Institute SVI.