Syeda Zuraira Fatima

Donald J. Trump's return to the presidency after the 2024 elections ushers in a new era of ambition and uncertainty. In order to fulfill his long-standing pledge to "Make America Great Again," Trump's government is poised to embark on a daring, inward-looking economic program during his second term, while also adjusting trade policies and international connections. His winning address included seven promises, and he declared that he would "govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises." The goal of this mantra is to restore America's economic independence by limiting outsourcing and prioritizing domestic manufacturing. The question arises here is that what would be the impacts of Trump’s resurrection on the US policies and the global world order?

In this election campaign, Trump pledged to address a number of domestic concerns, such as inflation and immigration. His campaign has mostly focused on issues of immigration reform, economic nationalism, and criticism of the policies of the existing administration. In an effort to increase his appeal in a divisive political environment, Trump has also turned his attention to healthcare and inflation as the 2024 election cycle goes on. Indicating a shift toward increased isolationism and less international cooperation, he also hinted at a return to his "America First" foreign policy. However, that didn't stop Trump from making lofty statements like bringing peace to the Middle East, controlling China, one of the US's biggest geopolitical rivals, and ending Russia's war against Ukraine within 24 hours of assuming office. Furthermore, Trump's foreign policy choices will have a significant impact given the plethora of issues the globe is currently confronting, including the climate crisis and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine.

Experts anticipate that Trump will increase volatility in the Middle East and take a harder line toward China and Ukraine. Trump has been referred to as Israel's "best friend in the White House" by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Critics point to Israel's destructive military assaults in Gaza and Lebanon, which have brought the Middle East to the verge of full-scale conflict, as proof that Trump's "arms for peace" platform has failed, despite his assurances that he would restore peace to the area if reelected.

With disputes over trade, Taiwan, and control of the Asia-Pacific area, the US and China have been engaged in geopolitical competition for many years. Trump's strategy with China is mostly focused on trade, with the US putting economic ties ahead of human rights. When Trump placed taxes on Chinese goods in 2018, the Chinese government retaliated, sparking a trade war. Now, Trump intends to stick to his tariff strategy with his planned 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and his selection of China hawks for his cabinet, US President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to take a tough stance against China.  For Trump, the key is to reduce the U.S trade deficit. In terms of their bilateral relationship with Washington, Beijing will find this to be a headache. However, China also has a significant chance to increase its influence under a future Trump government as the balance of US and Chinese international influence does not depend on US–China bilateral relations but on each country’s relationship with the rest of the world. 

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the impact of Russia's continuous offensive, the outcome of the ongoing Ukrainian operation inside Russia's Kursk Oblast, and the winter are the four elements that will impact the war in 2025. Although the Trump camp's stance on Ukraine is unknown, some signs point to the possibility that, if elected to a second term, Trump will want a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine. Trump may turn against Putin and expand US assistance to Ukraine if he is unable to find a speedy resolution to the conflict in that country.

Trump has promised to continue his vigorous deregulatory actions, which include dismantling current laws and restricting investments in governance, the environment, and society. Additionally, he intends to target the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by implementing relaxed environmental regulations and reducing its funding. In addition, Trump wants to shorten the time it takes for drilling licenses to be approved, boost domestic oil output, replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and establish the United States as the world's leading energy producer. He has called climate expenditures a "money grab" and has threatened to impose high tariffs on foreign-made items. In addition to withdrawing the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, Trump is expected to restructure the FDA, NIH, and CDC to address alleged conflicts of interest pertaining to outside funding sources or corporate relationships.

The goals of Trump's energy strategy are to lower energy prices, achieve "energy dominance," and increase the competitiveness of American businesses. He intends to lessen controls on the fossil fuel businesses, deregulate them, and dismantle environmental laws. Trump claims that the Paris Climate Agreement and the Inflation Reduction Act limit energy production and raise prices. Through the repeal of fuel and emissions regulations, tax incentives for the coal, oil, and gas sectors, and opposition to renewable subsidies, he intends to reduce the cost of energy for consumers. Along with increasing local oil and gas output, he might also use energy technology to oppose China and other foreign entities and redouble efforts in mining and vital minerals. Trump's energy policy may be summed up with the phrase "drill, baby, drill." He promises that, in part, by removing limits on energy production, America will become the world's largest producer of gas and oil. This would make it more difficult to enforce current laws designed to protect the public. Apart from the fact that international attempts to cut carbon emissions will be impacted by the marketing of oil and gas, a Trump presidency may also have an impact on the climate globally.

Consequently, Trump’s anticipated policies raise concerns about President Putin’s response to his return, with fears of rapid changes in the Ukraine conflict dynamics, as he may seek to quickly end the war, which could embolden Russia. The U.S.-Mexico relationship may face severe strain, particularly if Trump pursues military actions against drug cartels, potentially destabilizing Mexico's economy and internal security. In the Middle East, Trump may revert to a maximum pressure strategy toward Iran and is likely to support more aggressive Israeli policies regarding territorial claims. Moreover, relations with China could deteriorate sharply, with Trump proposing high tariffs that might incite a trade war, while also emphasizing a focus on tech competition as central to national security. The U.S.'s role in climate leadership might diminish, as Trump is expected to withdraw from international agreements and roll back environmental regulations. Overall, Trump’s current agenda hints picture of a more transactional U.S. foreign policy that may prioritize economic and military might over traditional alliances and global cooperation.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

--------------------------

Syeda Zuraira Fatima is student of BS International Relations. She writes blogs, analysis and articles about international affairs, global governance, foreign policy and comparative politics.