Muhammad Haseeb Sulehria

Despite its indifference to its religious past, under the presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye has sought to regain its standing relative to other Muslim countries. By calling for an Islamic coalition against Israel and presenting itself as a strong player capable of uniting Muslims, will Türkiye be able to become a leader of the Muslim world?

Turks began practising Islam in the 11th century. The Seljuk Turks were tribes that began spreading across the Middle East. They captured Baghdad in 1055 AD. At that point, Baghdad was the capital of the Caliphate. Then, they continued their expansion until 1071, when they captured the Byzantine Empire. This marked the beginning of Turkic Muslims settling in Anatolia. It took another 300 years before one of these tribes, the Ottomans, began rapidly conquering and succeeded in taking over the rest of the Byzantine Empire, along with many parts of Southeast Europe and the Middle East. The Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, which had grown into the most dominant power within the Islamic world, adopted the title of Caliph, implying his supremacy within the religion. Although the empire continued its expansion to include parts of the Arabian Peninsula, by the end of the 19th century it was in decline.

The final blow came after the First World War. Having sided with Germany and Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire was defeated, and as its remaining territories in the Middle East were divided between Britain and France, preparations were also made to carve up what remained of its Anatolian heartland. It was at this point that Turkish nationalist forces fought back. As General Mustafa Kemal led the nation through this transition from the Ottoman Empire to the Republic of Türkiye, the Sultan had no choice but to abdicate, and the Caliphate was dissolved. During the years that followed, Kemal, better known as Atatürk, stripped his newly formed nation of all its old Islamic traditions, including adopting the Latin alphabet in place of the Arabic alphabet. He introduced a strict separation between religion and state. At the same time, Türkiye broke off its ties to the Middle East and the broader Islamic world. Its priority was its Western and European orientation; it has been a member of NATO since.

In the meantime, by recognizing Israel, it became the first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, thus establishing a close security and defense alliance with the country. However, everything began to change at the turn of the millennium. Although Türkiye had been a secular republic for almost 70 years, it was mired in economic and political turmoil. Against this backdrop, the Justice and Development Party emerged. This political party was previously led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was the mayor of Istanbul, but ended up in prison for his role in stoking religious confrontation in society. But one thing must be made clear here: the Turkish military forces, who used to consider themselves guardians of the secular state of Türkiye, did not get involved this time. The AKP won the elections in Türkiye held in November 2002. While Erdoğan was initially reluctant to enter politics, he soon became Prime Minister. Right from the very beginning, Erdoğan signaled how he wanted to change Türkiye. At the domestic level, he began to reverse many of the existing religious restrictions. He ended the long-standing ban on headscarves in government offices. Likewise, he reduced the military's power and ended the annual tradition of expelling officers deemed too religious. At the same time, he steadily reoriented the country's foreign policy.

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Türkiye has increasingly become active in military and security roles. Besides efforts to restore order in Somalia, it has intervened in Libya, Syria, and Iraq. It also holds significant influence within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), evidenced by having its Secretary General from 2005 to 2013 and serving as OIC chairman from 2016 to 2019. Additionally, Türkiye has voiced opinions on issues popular among many Muslims. For instance, during the Arab Spring in 2010, Erdoğan strongly supported efforts to oust authoritarian secular regimes in Egypt and Syria, openly backing Islamist opposition groups, which strained Ankara's relations with Cairo and Damascus.

Perhaps most critically, the Turkish President emerged as a particularly vocal advocate for the Palestinian cause. In 2010, Türkiye's longstanding relationship with Israel unraveled after Israeli forces intercepted a Turkish aid ship heading to Gaza, causing multiple fatalities. Erdoğan's unwavering support for Palestine resonated as more Arab nations normalized ties with Israel. Although some signs of rapprochement appeared in 2022, relations have deteriorated again since the outbreak of the Gaza war. As well as publicly sympathizing with both Hamas and Hezbollah, Erdoğan has openly accused Israel of genocide, and it's against this backdrop that he's now gone as far as to call for an Islamic alliance against Israel.

All this has led many to see Türkiye as a leader within the Muslim world. But is this really the case? Obviously, the statistics mentioned above make the idea very likely. Firstly, Türkiye is among the six countries with the largest Muslim populations in the world, ranking just behind Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Iran. Moreover, the country has a GDP of $1 trillion per year and ranks third in economic terms after Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Then there's military spending, which puts it second only to Saudi Arabia.

 Türkiye remains deeply distrusted in large parts of the Arab world. Leaving aside the bitter experience of 300 years of Turkish Ottoman colonial rule in the Middle East, many Arab states continue to regard Türkiye and the Turkish leader with deep suspicion. Türkiye has also had deeper bilateral tensions with many states. In addition to Egypt and Syria, this includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Even though Türkiye is now actively trying to rebuild its broken ties to Damascus and Cairo, and Türkiye also attended a meeting of the Arab League for the first time in 13 years, many of these countries won't forget its past behaviour or the way that it can seemingly change position and turn on allies with ease.

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Türkiye is trying to lead the Turkic states but, at the same time, is cozying up to Russia, which still vies for supremacy in Central Asia. While supporters argue that these multilateral relationships strengthen Türkiye's global standing, critics see this as proof of Erdoğan's inability to be loyal to any group, hardly the qualities one expects of a leader. Finally, Türkiye's up against strong competition in the Arab world. Aside from Saudi Arabia, which remains an incredibly influential state as the birthplace of Islam and home to the religion's holiest sites, Egypt also remains a demographic and cultural powerhouse. Elsewhere, Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim state, followed by Pakistan. And the Gulf states, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, have also emerged as hugely influential actors, supported by considerable oil wealth. For many Shia Muslims, Iran remains the preeminent actor. For all these reasons, while Türkiye has undoubtedly reestablished its standing in the Muslim world under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and notwithstanding its strident position on Israel, it seems unlikely to become the overarching leader. There are just too many opposed to it and too many alternative challengers. Instead, it's better to think of Türkiye as one amongst many influential countries within this large and highly diverse group of states.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan (THRIP)

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Muhammad Haseeb Sulehria is a researcher from Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU), Islamabad, currently pursuing a Bachelor's degree in Defense and Strategic Studies. His research interests include defense, strategic affairs, international relations, and national security.