Mirza Afnan Baig

On April 22^nd, 2025, gunmen disguised in army fatigues opened fire on a group of tourists at the Baisarian meadow near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The assault resulted in 26 deaths, including one Nepali national and over 30 others were injured. The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility, citing opposition to India’s domicile policy and alleged demographic changes in Kashmir.

This attack has not only devastated tourism in Kashmir but also led to intensified military operations and military confrontation between two nuclear-armed neighbours. The United States responded with a level 4 “DO NOT TRAVEL” advisory for Jammu and Kashmir, citing heightened security risks and the potential for further violence. India took a reactionary measure right after the Pahalgam attack and blamed Pakistan for this activity and stated that Pakistan is at the back of all these terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan responded to India with the question of evidence that if India has the evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in Kashmir, Pakistan will claim the responsibility, and Pakistan also offered to India for a Joint Investigation regarding the whole Pahalgam activity. But India refused to cooperate, and in return, they violated the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which is the lifeline of Pakistan in terms of water. The flow of the three rivers was stopped by India. Meanwhile, Pakistan also backed out of the Simla Accord, which meant that the Kashmir Issue, which was bilateral till now, would be an International Issue.

On the night of May 6^th and 7^th, India sent its Air Force to bomb several sites in Pakistan and named that operation as “Operation Sindoor”. The Indian Air Force did some bombing in the cities of Bahawalpur, Muridke and several other cities. But the same time, Pakistan Air Force came up with a response and defended their skies by bringing down three Indian Air Force jets and the Indians were forced to retreat. The next day was very silent. Right after Pakistan’s self-defence, the international community was forced to enter because the international community was of the view that these tensions could go sideways anytime. The foreign minister of Saudi Arabia visited India and Pakistan so that both states could reconcile.

On the midnight of May 10th, India launched six missiles from Adampur, and they failed massively as their launched missiles landed in their territory in Amritsar and blamed Pakistan for all these attacks. India also sent around 77 drones into Pakistan territory and tried to attack different areas in Pakistan.  At the sunrise of May 10th, Pakistan started their response, naming it “Bunyan um Marsoos” and started to launch missiles at Indian targeted airbases and the Indian missile sights. Pakistan also sent its Air Force and destroyed all the locked targets of India. Pakistan achieved all their targets and reached home safely.

After three days of high tensions, the United States decided to intervene and managed a ceasefire after diplomatic talks with the states. Initially the United States came up with a statement that they are not the part of this escalation between India and Pakistan, but after looking at the response from Pakistan, the international community was feared of a nuclear escalation among the states, because when two nuclear states come face to face, this can consequences far beyond the borders. A meeting of the National Command Authority called by the Prime Minister of Pakistan was a sign that Pakistan might be thinking of their use of nuclear weapons for deterrence or causing Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD).  So, it's better for both states that the ceasefire came in because this thing could have gone sideways.

But all these escalations have raised questions for the United States against India. Concerning the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, India is the Net Security Provider of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region and is a part of QUAD and is trying to be a part of AUKUS. The failure of India’s defensive and offensive posture and its foreign policy might have created ambiguities in the United States' think tanks. India used the Rafael jets, and they were highly damaged by the response from Pakistan. Then they used the Heron drones provided by Israel, and all those drones were neutralised by Pakistan. Finally, during Operation Bunyan um Marsoos, Pakistan also destroyed the S-400 air defence systems. China’s logistical movements on the Pakistan border were also a threat to India, as China might jump indirectly into the conflict. The Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikrant was also on the move and raised concerns for the Pakistan Navy. That was a gamble by India. If the aircraft carrier had been hit by Pakistan, the Indo-Pacific Strategy could have come on to haunt the United States.

So, probably the United States initiated this ceasefire for their defensive posturing in the Indo-Pacific Region and the Indian Ocean region, because now they have seen that Pakistan is very much capable of defending itself against these kinds of threats. Secondly, this conflict between India and Pakistan can also be a conflict made by the international powers to see the reaction and response from both states and what kind of approach both South Asian giants take during high-tension times.  

 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

_________________________________

 Mirza Afnan Baig is a student of International Relations at University of Central Punjab. He has done internship at Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. His area of interest includes geopolitics and maritime security.