Waqas Abdullah

The Middle East is once again at the centre of global attention as tensions rise following Iran’s warnings of retaliation against potential US military action. The situation has been further complicated by internal unrest within Iran, strained diplomatic channels between Tehran and Washington, and heightened security concerns across the Gulf region. In this volatile environment, the risk of a wider regional conflict has increased, with serious implications not only for the Middle East but also for countries like Pakistan that are deeply connected to the region through economic, political, and security ties. Understanding how this crisis can be controlled and what role Pakistan can play is crucial at this critical juncture.

The current crisis is rooted in a combination of internal and external pressures on Iran. Protests driven by worsening economic conditions, inflation, unemployment, and public dissatisfaction have escalated into widespread unrest. Iranian authorities have responded with a heavy security crackdown, while simultaneously accusing foreign powers, particularly the United States and Israel, of instigating and supporting the protests. On the other hand, Western governments and human rights organisations have highlighted alleged human rights violations and mass arrests, further deepening mistrust between Iran and the West. As diplomatic engagement has weakened, rhetoric on both sides has grown more confrontational, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation.

The regional dimension of the crisis is particularly dangerous. Iran has reportedly conveyed messages to several neighbouring countries, warning that US military bases on their soil could become targets if Iran is attacked. The United States’ decision to withdraw some personnel from key bases reflects the seriousness with which these threats are being taken. Any military exchange involving Iran and US forces would almost certainly draw in regional allies, disrupt shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and send shockwaves through global energy markets. Given that a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through this region, even limited conflict could have severe economic consequences worldwide.

For Pakistan, the stakes are especially high. The country relies heavily on energy imports, much of which comes from the Middle East. Any disruption in supply routes or spike in oil and gas prices would place additional strain on Pakistan’s already fragile economy. Moreover, millions of Pakistani workers are employed in Gulf countries, and their remittances are a vital source of foreign exchange. Regional instability could threaten their livelihoods and safety, while also reducing remittance flows at a time when Pakistan depends on external financing and economic support.

Controlling the current situation requires a clear shift away from confrontation and toward diplomacy. History has shown that military solutions in the Middle East often led to prolonged conflicts with unintended consequences. De-escalation must begin with restoring communication channels, even if indirect. While direct talks between Iran and the United States may be politically difficult, intermediaries can play a critical role in conveying messages, clarifying intentions, and preventing misunderstandings that could lead to armed conflict. Silence and isolation only increase the risk of sudden and uncontrollable escalation.

Regional diplomacy is another essential tool for controlling tensions. Countries that maintain relations with both Iran and the United States, such as Qatar, Turkiye, and Oman, are uniquely positioned to act as mediators. Qatar, in particular, has emerged as a key diplomatic hub, leveraging its ties with Washington and Tehran to facilitate dialogue in previous crises. Such mediation efforts can help build confidence, explore compromise, and create space for political solutions rather than military ones. Equally important is restraint in rhetoric and military posture. Aggressive statements, military drills, and visible preparations for conflict often harden positions and reduce room for negotiation. Confidence-building measures, such as limiting provocative actions or signalling willingness to engage diplomatically, can help cool tensions. At the same time, addressing the humanitarian and economic dimensions of the crisis inside Iran could reduce internal pressure and lower the likelihood that external confrontation will be used as a distraction or unifying tool.

In this complex environment, Pakistan has the potential to play a constructive and stabilising role. Pakistan’s foreign policy has traditionally emphasised balance, avoiding alignment with any single power bloc in the Middle East. It maintains cordial relations with Iran, close partnerships with Gulf Arab states, and a long-standing, though sometimes complicated, relationship with the United States. This balanced positioning gives Pakistan credibility as an advocate for dialogue and restraint. Pakistan’s leadership has consistently emphasised the importance of resolving conflicts peacefully. By using diplomatic forums such as the United Nations and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and through bilateral engagements, Pakistan can continue to call for de-escalation and dialogue. While Pakistan may not be a primary mediator, its voice carries weight as a major Muslim country with deep regional ties and a clear interest in stability. Quiet diplomacy is another avenue through which Pakistan can contribute. Behind-the-scenes engagement, rather than public mediation, can sometimes be more effective in sensitive situations. Pakistan can use its diplomatic channels to encourage all parties to keep lines of communication open and to consider the broader regional consequences of their actions. Even small efforts to reduce mistrust or clarify intentions can make a meaningful difference in preventing escalation.

Pakistan also has a direct responsibility to protect its national interests and citizens. By engaging proactively with Gulf states, Islamabad can work to ensure contingency plans are in place for the safety of Pakistani workers if the security situation deteriorates. Diplomatic engagement can also help secure assurances regarding energy supplies and trade routes, reducing Pakistan’s vulnerability to regional shocks. The recent telephone conversation between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, reflects a shared concern for regional stability and a mutual commitment to peace. Qatar’s active role in mediation aligns well with Pakistan’s emphasis on diplomacy. Cooperation between the two countries, along with other regional and international partners, can strengthen collective efforts to prevent the crisis from escalating into a broader conflict. Ultimately, the Iran crisis is a reminder of how interconnected the world has become today. What begins as internal unrest or bilateral tension can quickly evolve into a regional or even global problem. Military confrontation would likely deepen instability, harm civilian populations, and damage economies across the region and beyond. Diplomacy, patience, and cooperation remain the most viable paths forward.

For Pakistan, promoting peace in the Middle East is not just a matter of principle but of national interest. Stability in the region supports Pakistan’s economic recovery, protects its citizens abroad, and contributes to broader regional security. By continuing to advocate for dialogue, supporting mediation efforts, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy, Pakistan can play a meaningful role in helping the Middle East navigate this dangerous period and move toward a more stable and peaceful future.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan (THRIP)

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Waqas Abdullah is a geopolitical analyst and anthropologist with expertise in Middle Eastern and Indo-Pacific politics. A Türkiye Bursları Scholar, he is pursuing a Master’s in International Relations at Selçuk University, Konya, Türkiye. Director of Foreign Affairs at DAG Media Network. His work focuses on climate refugees, human security