Afifa Kamran

The recent military escalation between India and Pakistan, triggered by the April 22 massacre in Pahalgam, has reignited fears of war in South Asia. India's swift retaliation through "Operation Sindoor" targeting alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir has been met with counterattacks, drone warfare, and a barrage of misinformation from both sides. Yet, beneath the surface of this dangerous theatre lies a familiar pattern: a politically expedient cycle of conflict that conveniently aligns with India's electoral calendar.

A Pattern of Pre-Election Escalation

This isn't the first time India has engaged in military action against Pakistan ahead of elections. In 2016, the surgical strikes followed the Uri attack just months before state elections. The 2019 Balakot airstrikes came on the heels of the Pulwama attack, mere weeks before the general elections. In 2022, border tensions peaked before state elections. Now, in 2025, "Operation Sindoor" unfolds just as India approaches another general election. This recurring pattern raises questions about the timing and motivations behind these military actions. While national security is paramount, the consistent alignment of military escalations with electoral timelines suggests a strategic use of conflict to galvanise nationalist sentiments and consolidate political support. Such manoeuvres not only risk regional stability but also divert attention from pressing domestic issues.

The Illusion of War: Limits and Realities

Despite the aggressive posturing, both India and Pakistan are acutely aware of the catastrophic consequences of a full-scale war, especially given their nuclear capabilities. This mutual understanding acts as a deterrent, ensuring that escalations remain controlled and limited in scope. The current conflict, while intense, mirrors previous episodes where both nations engaged in retaliatory actions without crossing the threshold into full-blown war. This controlled aggression serves multiple purposes: it satisfies domestic calls for strong leadership, sends a message of deterrence to adversaries, and maintains a semblance of control over an otherwise volatile situation. However, it also perpetuates a cycle of violence that hinders long-term peace prospects.

Misinformation: A Weapon of Modern Warfare

In the digital age, information warfare has become a critical component of military strategy. Both India and Pakistan have engaged in disseminating propaganda and misinformation to shape domestic and international narratives. False claims, doctored images, and unverified reports flood social media platforms, fuelling public outrage and deepening mistrust. This deliberate spread of misinformation not only obscures the truth but also exacerbates tensions, making de-escalation efforts more challenging. It underscores the need for critical media literacy and responsible journalism to counteract the detrimental effects of fake news.

The Erosion of Liberal Values

Perhaps most disheartening is the public's reaction to these escalations. Social media platforms have become battlegrounds for a meme war between citizens of both countries, where people openly celebrate enemy casualties. This disturbing desensitisation to violence reflects a deep societal shift, where empathy is overshadowed by jingoism.

The normalization of such reactions indicates a deeper societal change, where hyper-nationalism dominates over liberal values. It calls into question the health of democratic institutions and the resilience of liberal ideologies in the face of orchestrated nationalist fervour.

Structural Impediments to Dialogue

Meaningful dialogue between India and Pakistan remains elusive, hindered by structural and political barriers. India’s drift towards authoritarianism under Prime Minister Modi, characterised by a crackdown on dissent and a centralised power structure, limits the space for diplomatic engagement. Conversely, Pakistan’s military-dominated political landscape, with limited civilian oversight, complicates its ability to engage in sustained peace talks. These internal dynamics, coupled with mutual distrust, create an environment where dialogue is not only difficult but often politically disadvantageous. Without significant internal reforms and a commitment to democratic principles, the prospect of lasting peace remains dim.

Breaking the Cycle

The recurring pattern of pre-election military escalations between India and Pakistan is a dangerous game that jeopardises regional stability for political gain. It exploits nationalist sentiments, manipulates public perception through misinformation, and undermines the prospects for genuine peace. Breaking this cycle requires a multifaceted approach: fostering media knowledge to combat misinformation, reinforcing democratic institutions to ensure accountability, and promoting civil society engagement to make pressure for peaceful judgments. Only through such comprehensive efforts can both nations hope to move beyond the illusion of war and towards a future grounded in mutual respect and cooperation.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

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Afifa Kamran is student of International Relations at Department of Political Science & IR, University of Central Punjab, Lahore.