Rimsha Aslam

The most consequential war of the 21st century started with the aim that it would end in ten days, but now four years have passed, and it is continuing. War takes heritage, cultures, infrastructure, livelihoods, and lives, and gives back only sorrow, bereavement, casualties, and displacement, putting everything in the nations at an imperilled point. There were tensions between Russia and Ukraine from the time when the Soviet Union collapsed. After the independence of Ukraine in 1991, the newly born country faced many challenges. It was weak politically and economically, and there were also regional divisions. On one side, it was making diplomatic relations with Russia, and on the other side, Ukraine sought cooperation with NATO. This created a security dilemma, as Russia viewed this as NATO’s expansion towards Russia. Russia construed it as a threat to its security interests

The war initially started in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. However, the conflict escalated on 24 February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. To avoid any future war, the Minsk Agreement was signed in 2014, but no long-lasting settlement was reached. There were violations of the ceasefire, and there was disagreement over whether security should come first or a political settlement should be prioritised, which led to the failure of the agreement. In 2022, the war escalated, with the use of drone technology, attrition strategies, long-range strikes, and a prolonged period of fighting that continues today. But why have all peace formulas failed, and why has there been no termination of the war to date?

Both countries have failed to achieve a decisive victory. The leaders must consider public opinion, too, and neither side is ready to withdraw or offer concessions to the other. Any such step could lead to personal political losses or could amount to political suicide for them. According to CSIS, by June 2026, there had been approximately 1.4 million Russian military casualties and approximately 525,000–625,000 Ukrainian military casualties. Russia's military expenditure reached approximately $190 billion in 2025, while Ukraine's reached approximately $84.1 billion, almost 40 per cent of its GDP. 

A military solution is costly, and the problem needs to be addressed properly, as if the conflict becomes a frozen conflict, the dispute will remain unresolved. Technological advancements and attacks on critical infrastructure are increasing economic pressure. There is only military exhaustion without any political resolution. There is a need to prevent a frozen conflict because a ceasefire does not mean permanent peace. If a proper ceasefire is established, one side may consider that the other is preparing for rearmament and a greater attack in the next move. A credible monitoring and enforcement body is needed to prevent the war from becoming a frozen conflict and to move towards its termination.

Diplomatic bargaining can be a solution, but here lies the question of Ukraine's territory and sovereignty, as almost 20 percent of Ukraine's territory has been captured by Russia. Military deterrence and diplomatic leverage both need to go hand in hand. There are security concerns on both sides, and the conflict needs to be managed and resolved. A military solution alone is not possible because that option is still being pursued today, and so far, only conflict management has been observed. There should be a proper mechanism involving independent bodies to manage the ceasefire, and a step-by-step approach is needed because both parties have a trust deficit.

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The war cannot be terminated by a ceasefire alone; it needs phased negotiations, security guarantees, and international monitoring. There is already considerable war exhaustion and significant economic and military impacts. If security guarantees are provided by Russia, Ukraine may not seek additional security through NATO, and if it does not, Russia may also feel secure against NATO. European countries may also be reassured that there will be no further territorial expansion towards them. Therefore, security guarantees and trust-building are essential.

This war is a significant example of how military power alone does not guarantee a decisive victory. The Russia–Ukraine war started as a regional conflict in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale war in 2022. Military advancements, attrition strategies, and sanctions have not delivered a sustainable victory to either side. Therefore, political bargaining, negotiations, and the use of diplomatic channels are essential to ending the prolonged war. Now, it is no longer about winning or losing; it is about achieving a durable settlement that can provide a secure and peaceful future for both countries.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan (THRIP)

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Rimsha Aslam is a student of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. She can be reached at [email protected].