Dr. Saqib Khan Warraich

India and Pakistan, in their standing rivalry and history of wars, pose a persistent threat to the security of South Asia. Both countries always engage in the politics of threat and war adventures.  This time, India's offensive and Pakistan's defensive counter strategies against each other have dramatically changed, relying on drones. This resulted in a significant shift in the aerial arms race in South Asia. India's recent operation "Sindoor" and Pakistan's defensive strategies highlight the growing importance of drone technology. India and Pakistan use drones for border monitoring, countering cross-border terrorism and surveillance. Both countries depend on the imported technologies of other advanced, wealthy nations, especially the USA, Russia, the UK, China, and France. Big nations are reaping huge profits by selling their advanced military weapons to India and Pakistan. The South Asia region remains a past legacy of colonial master divide-and-rule policies with deliberate efforts to create territorial disputes that may be unresolved for centuries. Historically, partition was not only the conflict resolution between Muslims and Hindus but also the start of a new era of conflicts between India and Pakistan. Kashmir dispute, water issues, cross-border terrorism, and power politics can advance this technological competition.

In Pakistan, the political power of decision-making is deteriorating, and foreign policy increasingly revolves around the military elite. Although both nations invest heavily in their militaries under the pretext of security and defence, making their armed forces essential for survival. In 2023, India allocated around $72 billion for defence, making it the third-largest military spender globally after the U.S. and China. Nearly 50% of this budget is dedicated to salaries and pensions for armed forces personnel. Significant funds are also directed toward modernisation efforts, including developing indigenous weapons under the "Make in India" initiative. India is focusing on enhancing its capabilities in space, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Long-standing border disputes, particularly with Pakistan over Kashmir, drive this spending. Additionally, India remains one of the largest importers of arms, sourcing weapons from countries like Russia, France, and the U.S.

In contrast, Pakistan allocated approximately PKR 1.8 trillion ($6.3 billion) for defence in 2023-2024. This amount accounts for about 16% of the government’s total expenditure. Pakistan's budget is directed mainly toward operational readiness and maintaining a credible defence posture, reflecting its economic constraints compared to India. Pakistan’s defence spending is heavily constrained by its struggling economy, high debt, and low foreign reserves. Despite these challenges, the military holds considerable influence in national policymaking. Key priorities include enhancing nuclear deterrence, advancing missile technology, and countering Indian influence through asymmetric warfare. Pakistan’s defence budget is considerably higher than allocated for education, health, Police, and other government departments. Much of the defence budget is spent on personnel costs and pensions. Every year, the government reduces the education budget, with little to no attention given to the advancement of research and skills. Pakistan is lacking in all research fields due to the unavailability of funds. India focuses more on research and education than Pakistan, but both countries lack modernisation of their education system. Pakistan and India both have primarily focused on maintaining operational readiness and deterrence. India’s defence budget, nearly 10 times larger than Pakistan's, reflects its stronger economy and global ambitions. India emphasises modernisation and self-reliance, while Pakistan prioritises a credible deterrence capability. Both countries allocate significant resources to defence due to unresolved conflicts like Kashmir and regional power competition. Bad governance further exacerbates challenges in both nations, affecting political, social, and economic sectors.

In 2023, Pakistan ranked 140 out of 180 countries on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. Widespread corruption among political leaders and public officials undermines trust. Institutions like the judiciary and police suffer from politicisation and weak enforcement of the rule of law. Bureaucratic inefficiency delays policy implementation. Pakistan's public debt exceeds 80% of GDP, worsening the economic crisis. Inflation and unemployment remain rampant due to poor fiscal policies. Frequent changes in government and military interventions disrupt long-term planning and stability. Poor governance in Pakistan has hindered efforts to address the Baluchistan issue and terrorism. The country also ranks poorly in education and healthcare. Over 22 million children are out of school, and access to clean drinking water and basic healthcare is limited in many areas. The rule of law is deteriorating due to the sharp increase in murder cases and the easy availability of weapons to criminals. Many murderers are court absconders, posing a serious challenge to the writ of the state. The Police have increasingly become a political protocol institution, showing little concern for preventing crime or incarcerating criminals.                                                                                                               

India ranked 85 out of 180 countries on the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. In previous years, India also ranked 132nd out of 190 countries in the World Bank's "Ease of Doing Business" index. Overregulation stifles entrepreneurship and innovation. The Indian judicial system struggles with delays, with over 50 million court cases pending. Anti-corruption and human rights laws are poorly enforced. India faces severe pollution crises, with Delhi often ranked the world's most polluted capital. Weak urban planning and poor implementation of environmental laws exacerbate these issues. Rising income inequality is another concern, with the top 1% owning 40% of national wealth.  The best strategy to conceal bad governance, marginalisation of minorities, caste-based hatred, separatist movements, and unemployment is the politics of war. India and Pakistan should resolve their conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy. Both nations should come up with peace agreements and prefer peace over confrontation. Pakistan and India should work collectively with joint efforts to address the issue of transnational terrorism. This is only possible if the Kashmir issue is resolved. The economic cost of the Kashmir conflict is too high, apart from the human cost.  India and Pakistan must spend their resources on human development as compared to an escalating arms race. India and Pakistan should focus on economic growth and addressing shared challenges such as poverty, religious extremism, transnational terrorism, militancy, and climate change, as this can pave the way for lasting peace and stability in South Asia.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

_________________________________

Dr. Saqib Khan Warraich is an Assistant Professor at GCU Lahore and an eminent scholar of terrorism studies. He can be reached at: [email protected]