Abdul Aziz

With Donald Trump's entry in Oval office, one era seems to be ending, and another is beginning, potentially marking a significant shift in liberal democracy. In many Western countries, conservative parties have already gained ground and challenging liberal values. Furthermore, the traditional Western bloc's cohesion is weakening. Historically, the U.S. foreign policy has often revolved around propelling wars globally, whether as a national interest, rivalry, alliance, or hegemonic strategy. However, under Trump, world order and international politics are being reshaped. He has shown an inclination toward a non-interventionist approach, as evidenced by his withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the establishment of the Abraham Accords to normalize Israel's relations with Arab states. This represents a significant departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy.

Before the 2024 elections, two major wars dominate global headlines: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has broader implications for the Middle East. Trump's earlier policies, such as withdrawing troops and promoting agreements like the Abraham Accords, suggest a shift toward non-interventionism. His campaign rhetoric offers further clues about his potential approach to foreign policy, emphasizing his belief in unilateral decision-making, often without consulting his administration. For example, Trump has criticized the way U.S. allies treat America, stating that some allies are worse than so-called enemies. He has accused allies of exploiting U.S. military protection while taking advantage of America in trade deals. In his first term, Trump pursued an "America First" policy, which included withdrawing from Afghanistan, fostering amicable relations with North Korea and Russia, and exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA, negotiated under Obama, aimed to curtail Iran's nuclear program in exchange for eased sanctions. Trump’s withdrawal from this deal strained U.S.-Iran relations further, culminating in the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, and Iran demonstrate on the street to condemned Trump action escalating tensions across the Middle East.

Trump also withdrew the U.S. from several international agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, which he dismissed as skeptical. This agreement aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address climate change's global effects. However, Trump prioritized national interests over collective environmental efforts. Similarly, his trade war with China—marked by high tariffs on Chinese goods—disrupted global trade and strained U.S.-China relations. During his presidency, Trump repeatedly criticized NATO, claiming that allied countries were not spending enough on defense. He even threatened to reduce U.S. contributions to NATO’s budget, alarming European allies only three countries met the budget criteria out of the European countries. In his anticipated second term, often referred to as "Trump 2.0," the global dynamics are more complex, with two active wars—the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas war—potentially influencing his foreign policy approach. If re-elected, Trump might again withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which the U.S. rejoined under Biden. He has also hinted at limiting cooperation with UN institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). During Covid-19 he contionusly threaten the WHO by preventing aids because USA has more donor to WHO in terms of funding. He argued that WHO is favoring toward China. 

Furthermore, Trump has proposed imposing heavy tariffs on Mexican and Chinese trade, prioritizing his agenda to counter China’s growing influence. However, some agreements, such as the U.S. pact with NATO, might prove difficult to alter due to Congressional oversight. A recent law mandates Congressional approval for NATO withdrawal, limiting Trump’s unilateral authority. Nonetheless, Trump has pathways to influence agreements with other nations, such as those with Japan and South Korea, which are key to deterring China and North Korea. He could shift U.S. foreign policy by reducing military budgets and withdrawing forces from strategic bases, impacting alliances in the Asia-Pacific and beyond. Trump’s leadership style, particularly his tendency to dismiss key officials, will also play a significant role. During his first term, he replaced the Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and Attorney General. However, Donald Trump in his term and in election campaigns continuously lashing out on Media by labeling channels such as ‘fake news’ also Trump is critical view toward National and international institutions These dismissals and hard line policy had profound implications for both U.S. domestic and foreign affairs, as seen in decisions like the Doha Dialogue, the JCPOA exit, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. To sum up the whole discussion, Trump's second term could further disrupt traditional U.S. foreign policy and global stability, with his unilateral decision-making and "America First" agenda likely driving major changes in international relations.

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Abdul Aziz is student of BS International Relations at the University of Central Punjab, Pakistan. He has a passion for exploring global issues, particularly in the areas of conflict resolution, international security, and diplomacy.