Waqas Abdullah

Unlike the United States, whose Middle East strategy relies on military alliances and interventions, China is quietly expanding its influence through economics, energy, and diplomacy. At the core of its approach is energy security. China imports over 40% of its oil from the region, forging ties with key suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE. China invests in ports, railways, and industrial zones from Egypt to Pakistan through the Belt and Road Initiative, embedding itself into the region’s infrastructure and trade networks. Chinese tech giants like Huawei also build 5G and smart city systems across Gulf states, offering digital solutions without political strings. What sets Beijing apart is its policy of non-interference. Unlike the West, it does not lecture regimes on governance or rights, making it a more attractive partner for many. China is reshaping the regional balance by combining strategic patience with economic depth without firing a single shot.

China’s expanding presence in the Middle East is anchored in strategic partnerships with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, each playing a distinct role in Beijing’s broader geopolitical and economic agenda. Iran offers discounted oil and strategic access to the Persian Gulf, solidified by a $400 billion, 25-year agreement despite U.S. sanctions. China’s mediation in the 2023 Saudi-Iran détente further elevated its diplomatic profile. Saudi Arabia, China’s top oil supplier, is deepening ties beyond energy through significant investments in digital infrastructure, green technology, and mega-projects like NEOM, including yuan-based oil trading that subtly challenges the dollar’s dominance. With an annual bilateral trade of over $70 billion, the UAE is a key player in China’s Digital Silk Road. It hosts Chinese-operated ports, AI partnerships, and industrial zones reinforcing economic interdependence. Egypt’s strategic location along the Suez Canal and its infrastructure cooperation with China make it a logistical hub linking Africa, Europe, and Asia. Investments in Egypt’s new capital, transport networks, and energy grid show how China is embedding itself in critical infrastructure. These pragmatic, economy-driven relationships allow China to gain regional influence without military entanglements, reshaping Middle Eastern alignments through trade, technology, and infrastructure-led diplomacy.

China’s rising influence in the Middle East contrasts sharply with America’s traditional dominance rooted in military power and political leverage. Without deploying troops, China has secured major strategic wins through economic diplomacy, infrastructure investment, and a policy of neutrality. Its mediation of the 2023 Saudi-Iran deal marked a diplomatic breakthrough, enhancing its image as a peace-broker. Economically, China has become the largest trading partner for key states like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt, while Belt and Road projects such as the Suez Canal Economic Zone and Khalifa Port have expanded its regional footprint. China’s use of local currencies like the yuan in oil deals subtly undermines U.S. dollar dominance. Unlike the U.S., China does not push for political reforms, making it an attractive partner for regimes seeking stability and sovereignty. This pragmatic approach, focused on “win-win” cooperation, has helped Beijing quietly build long-term influence reshaping the region’s power dynamics without military entanglement.

Despite China’s expanding footprint in the Middle East, fully replacing U.S. dominance remains unlikely in the near future. While Beijing has gained ground through economic partnerships, diplomacy, and infrastructure investment, it faces key limitations, most notably, its lack of military presence. Unlike the U.S., which operates major military bases and maintains deep defence ties, China cannot yet guarantee security or respond effectively to regional crises. Its policy of non-interference, though attractive to some regimes, also restricts its role in conflict resolution. Additionally, China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims, concerns over debt-trap diplomacy, and its reliance on importing labour for BRI projects have triggered public scepticism in the region. Managing ties with rival powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia without provoking mistrust is also a balancing act. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to dominate arms sales, intelligence networks, and financial systems. Thus, China may grow in influence, but replacing the U.S. as the region’s central power remains a distant prospect.

China’s growing ties with Middle Eastern states are reverberating far beyond the region, influencing global geopolitics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. By securing energy from Gulf states and building trade routes through Iran, Pakistan (CPEC), and the Red Sea, China reduces its reliance on U.S.-dominated Sea lanes and enhances its strategic resilience. These moves make the Middle East a western extension of China’s Indo-Pacific strategy. U.S. allies like India, Japan, and the EU are monitoring China’s “non-interference” diplomacy, which contrasts with Western conditionality and could shift Global South loyalties eastward. Meanwhile, Beijing’s investments in Israel face U.S. scrutiny, testing Tel Aviv’s balancing act. The possibility of China expanding its military presence beyond its Djibouti base to sites like Gwadar or the UAE signals potential hard-power ambitions. Overall, China’s approach is reshaping regional alignments through commerce, not confrontation, challenging the U.S.-led global order and prompting allies and rivals alike to rethink their strategies in an evolving multipolar world.

China’s engagement with the Middle East extends beyond oil and infrastructure; it is also an effort to project soft power through tools like Confucius Institutes, CGTN Arabic, and educational scholarships. However, despite these initiatives, China’s cultural influence in the Arab world remains limited. Its message is often seen as scripted and state-centric, lacking the emotional resonance that Western pop culture delivers. While Hollywood and Western digital platforms captivate Arab youth, Chinese cultural exports struggle to connect due to linguistic, generational, and stylistic gaps. Scholarships and state media efforts have not shifted educational preferences, as most Arab students still aspire to study in Western countries known for academic freedom and global exposure. China’s model may appeal to authoritarian regimes, but it often alienates younger populations wary of censorship and a lack of freedoms. Ultimately, China’s soft power remains strategic but soulless, structured for influence, yet unable to inspire the same loyalty or cultural admiration as the West.

China’s successful mediation of the 2023 Iran-Saudi Arabia deal marked a turning point in its Middle East diplomacy, showcasing its emergence as a neutral actor capable of brokering peace. Unlike the U.S., which often brings political conditions, China’s “no-strings-attached” approach appealed to regional rivals wary of Western involvement. However, while the deal boosted China’s diplomatic image, its role in other conflicts, like Syria, Yemen, or Israel-Palestine, remains largely rhetorical. Beijing calls for peace but avoids the hands-on diplomacy needed to resolve crises. Its non-interventionist stance allows it to talk to all sides but limits its influence when military or security guarantees are required. The U.S., despite its flaws, still plays the role of first responder in regional security. As China’s stakes in the region grow, relying solely on soft power may prove insufficient. The real test will come when diplomacy is no longer enough, forcing Beijing to consider deeper engagement beyond trade and symbolic mediation.

The Middle East’s future is unlikely to be defined by a simple transition from U.S. dominance to Chinese leadership. Instead, it will reflect a hybrid model of coexistence and strategic competition. China’s influence is growing through infrastructure, trade, and energy partnerships, offering economic engagement without political conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. retains an unmatched military presence and long-standing security alliances, particularly with Gulf states. Regional powers are increasingly adept at balancing the two: Saudi Arabia and the UAE court Chinese investment while relying on U.S. defence; Egypt hosts Chinese infrastructure projects but still receives American military aid. This dual alignment strategy offers flexibility and leverage. While areas of U.S.-China cooperation, like counterterrorism or energy stability, are possible, rivalry over digital networks, arms sales, and port access is intensifying. Middle Eastern states’ challenge lies in managing this competition to their advantage. Success will require diplomatic agility to navigate between two superpowers shaping the region’s evolving order.

Conclusion

China’s growing role in the Middle East signals a shift from unipolar dominance to multipolar engagement. While Beijing offers economic depth and neutrality, it lacks military weight. Regional states are now skillfully balancing between U.S. security and Chinese investment, shaping their futures amid great power competition, not merely reacting to it.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

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Waqas Abdullah is a geopolitical and strategic analyst with a special focus on Indo-Pacific politics, power patterns, and the Middle Eastern region. He is actively engaged in addressing issues related to climate refugees, displaced people, and climate advocacy, working to raise awareness and drive action on these critical global challenges.