Fatima Bashir

After the Cold War, the world experienced a shift in global order from bipolarity to unipolarity and from confrontations to partnerships. Conflicts that were once rooted in ideologies, military power, and global rivalries have transformed, now driven by new motives such as ethno-nationalism, separatism, extremism, and fragmentation. The emergence of new forms of threats is evident. While military power remains and countries still prepare their militaries to defend their interests, warfare has evolved, predominantly taking the shape of asymmetrical wars, which pose challenges in terms of power dynamics. Additionally, non-traditional threats such as climate change, cyberwarfare, and nuclear proliferation have surfaced. These pose significant risks to global security, the highest level of human security, and any disruption could lead to suffering for both humanity and our planet. In this context, we are witnessing the first chapter of a potential WORLD WAR. If anything, even a minor issue, goes awry and the situation escalates, we might find ourselves facing a war that the UN was established to prevent.

Conflict: Reality:

After the era of hunter-gatherer societies, humans gradually transitioned to agricultural societies. Over time, as civilisations developed, conflicts began to emerge over resources, power, and influence. According to Neoclassical Realism human beings are inherently power-seeking and self-interested. This nature drives competition and conflict, creating a constant state of uncertainty in human relations. If we accept this view, we can trace the roots of conflict far back in history, highlighting its persistence over time. On the other hand, Neorealism attributes conflict not to human nature, but to the anarchic structure of the international system, where no central authority exists to regulate state behaviour. This lack of overarching authority forces states to rely on self-help and prioritise survival, often leading to tension and war. For example, World War I can be seen through a neorealist lens as a result of shifting power balances, rising insecurity, and the absence of global authority to prevent escalation

Conflicts have not ceased; Events such as the 2001 War on Terror, the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 demonstrate that reality. Although it was once believed that the use of hard power had significantly declined after World War II, these examples prove otherwise. Even in today’s era of advanced technology, states still resort to military force and invasions though such instances are less frequent.

Meanwhile, cyberattacks have become increasingly common and show no signs of stopping. In 2017, WannaCry Ransomware, a major cyberattack, spread across 150 countries within hours. It encrypted users’ files on operational computers and demanded Bitcoin as ransom for their release. In 2020, the cybersecurity firm Recorded Future Insikt group reported that China was suspected of launching a cyberattack on Mumbai’s electric grid. The hacker group was identified as RedEcho. This occurred after the deadly military standoff between India and China in the Galwan Valley, said to be the deadliest clash in 45 years. Although the Indian government denied it was a cyberattack, claiming it was due to human error, some ministers insisted that malware was responsible

Recently, we witnessed a significant air confrontation between India and Pakistan, two major nuclear powers in South Asia, following the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed the Lashkar-e-Taiba group for this and launched Operation Sindoor to tackle the terrorists in Pakistan. In espoused of this, Pakistan launched the operation Bunyan un Marsoos. Although a ceasefire has been reached, there are still skirmishes on the border.  The roots of hostility between these two nations can be traced back to the partition of British India in 1947. One of the earliest and most enduring disputes was over Kashmir, a princely state that was sold to Maharaja Gulab Singh, a Hindu ruler, under the Treaty of Amritsar in 1846.

The recent India-Pakistan conflict has underscored the region’s role as a testing ground for advanced military technologies, drawing global attention due to the involvement of Western and Chinese weaponry. Notably, India’s French-made Rafale jets were engaged in intense aerial combat with Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied JF-17 and J-10C fighters. Reports indicate that at least 3 Rafales were downed by a Chinese J-10C, marking the first combat loss of this sophisticated aircraft and prompting scrutiny of its performance. The deployment of cutting-edge systems, including India’s S-400 missile defence and Pakistan’s loitering munitions, highlighted the evolving nature of modern warfare in the region. This escalation not only raised concerns within NATO about the proliferation of advanced weaponry but also impacted global markets; European stocks, particularly in France, experienced decline amid investor anxiety over the conflict’s broader implications. The situation emphasised the intricate interplay between regional hostilities and international economic and security dynamics.

Trump’s renewed trade war has significantly disrupted global supply chains as he pivots aggressively from bilateralism to confrontational multilateralism. In the Middle East, he has provided billions of dollars in weapons to Israel during the ongoing Gaza conflict, widely condemned as a genocide, only to recently escalate tensions further by accusing Netanyahu of manipulating him. Meanwhile, India and China remain locked in disputes over borders and influence in the South China Sea. Iran continues to suffer under long-standing U.S. sanctions. In response, regional organisations like BRICS have attempted to assert autonomy by introducing their own currency, but their efforts faltered amid fears of U.S. retaliation, especially after Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs. These developments are deepening global uncertainty and pushing the world closer to a dangerous tipping point.

Amid all this chaos and conflict, we find ourselves in what can only be described as a new Age of Anxiety. We witness escalating tensions, deepening economic uncertainties, and an ever-widening divide between the Global North and South. The once-celebrated liberal democratic order is crumbling, while realist power politics take centre stage. A pervasive security dilemma haunts every region, with nations racing to build arsenals far deadlier than anything seen in the world wars. These weapons, crafted under the guise of deterrence, may not just safeguard our future; they may be the very instruments of our end. If not today, then perhaps tomorrow- our world may be one spark away from irreversible annihilation.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Himalayan Research Institute Pakistan - (THRIP)

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Fatima Bashir is student of  International Relations at University of Central Punjab, Lahore.